Typhoon Hagupit is currently intensifying over the western tropical Pacific Ocean, about three days (or 800 miles) away from a potential landfall in the central Philippines. The storm is forecast to intensify to Super Typhoon status, with maximum sustained winds of about 150 miles per hour
But there's just one major problem with the storm forecast: Computer models are diverging dramatically regarding its projected track, making forecasters sweat this one more than usual.
In an unusually stark instance of computer model inconsistency, the American-made Global Forecast System (or GFS model) is projecting that the storm will head west, toward the Philippines, but at the last minute will turn sharply to the north. This forecast track would spare the Philippines from a direct hit, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is forecasting just such a scenario. The GFS model performed well during the North Atlantic hurricane season this year, out-forecasting the European model on both projections of storm track and intensity. Read more...
More about Us World, World, Philippines, Typhoon, and Climate
from MashableAndrew Freedman
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