New York Jets running back Chris Johnson certainly isn't the fantasy superstar he once was. He may have put up over 1,000 rushing yards in each of his past six NFL seasons—along with his famous 2,006-yard performance in 2009—but fantasy owners shouldn't be expecting that any more.
Through four games this season, Johnson has shared the workload in a backfield committee approach with Chris Ivory. While Ivory has only received nine more touches than his counterpart heading into Week 5, there's been a noticeable difference in carries on a weekly basis.
Take a look at a comparison of each running back's week-to-week performances:
The glaring issue that Johnson's fantasy owners must realize is the fact that his touches are decreasing, while Ivory is seeing more action.
According to Around the NFL, the writing was already on the wall:
Generally, Johnson would be able to make up for his diminishing value as a ball-carrier with decent production as a receiver out of the backfield. While he recorded five receptions for 23 yards and a score in Week 1, he hasn't seen many looks from quarterback Geno Smith since.
In fact, over the last two weeks, Ivory has been targeted 10 times while Johnson has only seen four. Making matters worse, during the team's Week 4 contest against the Detroit Lions, Ivory received the only carry within the opponent's 10-yard line.
Dan Hanzus from Around the NFL tweeted his prediction for the Jets' near future:
So, if Johnson is losing touches, not seeing goal-line carries and being overlooked in the passing game, what kind of fantasy value does he have?
Well, not all that much.
Ivory is certainly the safer fantasy play going forward; however, that doesn't mean Johnson is without value. He did break a tackle on his way to a 35-yard touchdown scamper to save his fantasy owners from utter disappointment in Week 4. However, that can't be counted on regularly—especially considering the Jets have the league's 31st-ranked run-blocking offensive line, via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
Sports Illustrated's Andy Benoit noted how ineffective New York's running game was in Week 4 without Johnson's big run—or extra defenders in the box:
Things shouldn't be expected to suddenly take a turn for the better for the veteran ball-carrier. In Week 5, he faces the San Diego Chargers and the NFL's ninth-ranked run defense, allowing just 97.3 yards per game on the ground. With Ivory getting the bulk of the carries, and Johnson having little value in the passing game, a viable performance is unlikely.
Now, this doesn't mean Johnson's fantasy owners should instantly fling him to the waiver wire. After all, he holds plenty of value as Ivory's handcuff. In 2011 and 2012, Ivory only played in a total of 12 games due to a rash of injuries, should he suffer another unfortunate setback, Johnson is in line to benefit.
For Week 5—and the foreseeable future—Johnson should be considered a bye-week replacement or spot starter, at the most, in very deep leagues. We can't count on him to break a long touchdown run each week, so until his carries increase, he belongs on the bench.
from Bleacher Report http://ift.tt/1rteIzl
via IFTTT September 30, 2014 at 11:01PM
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